Three Up Three Down: The Stock of NBA Teams This Offseason

Co-Founder and Writer, Megan Holden

Opinion

It’s now the time of the year for holidays, family, and NBA fans to criticize their team’s general managers. The NBA offseason is officially here, as free agency began November 20th, two days after the NBA Draft and four days after the trade moratorium was lifted.

Like the stock market, the NBA offseason can be very unpredictable. Although, one can get a feel for it based on the trends and rumors circulating. Some teams do too much while others not enough, all while fans stare at a screen, exercising their fingers by refreshing every five seconds.

In this article, Locked IN will examine the stock of the three greatest risers and fallers of the NBA, based on a recap of their offseason moves and non-moves so far. We also predict their success based on the direction the team is heading.

Stock Up:

Phoenix Suns

2019-20 record: 34-38 (undefeated while in the NBA Bubble) | 10th in Western Conference

Last Team Rankings (Regular Season): Points Per Game (PPG) #10, Rebounds Per Game #21, Assist Per Game #1, Turnovers 13th (highest), Defense (PPG Allowed): 20th (lowest), stats from ESPN.

Addition(s):

• Traded for: All-Star PG Chris Paul, F Abdel Nader from the Thunder

• Draft pick(s): Maryland’s PF/C Jalen Smith (10th)

• Free-agent(s) signed: F Jae Crowder (Miami), C Damian Jones (Atlanta), G E’Twaun Moore (New Orleans)

• Resigned: PF/C Dario Saric, PG Javon Carter

Noticeable Subtraction(s): Starting PG Ricky Rubio (traded to Oklahoma City), SG Ty Jerome (traded to Oklahoma City), Starting F Kelly Oubre Jr. (traded to Oklahoma City), SG Jalen Lecque (traded to Oklahoma City), Starting C Aron Baynes (signed with Toronto).

Possible Starting Five: Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton

Take: Getting the best player available so far this offseason in Chris Paul (CP3) automatically puts the Suns here. CP3 is coming off what some might say is a comeback year, after a disappointing one in Houston (though he put up respectable stats). Then last season, CP3 led what was believed to be a lottery team in the Thunder to be the 5th best team in a tough Western Conference, competing up to seven games with the Rockets in the playoffs.

CP3 is an all-around type of player who can make the players around him better. Pairing him up with a star sharpshooter in Booker is a perfect combo because CP3 is a willing passer and good enough defender (9x All-Defense) to hide some of Booker’s defensive flaws (ranks number 119 for his position in Defense Real Plus and Minus with -1.71, according to ESPN).

The move also takes some pressure off Booker to be the only star that has to make the big play. Most importantly, the Suns are bringing in the Elected President of the National Basketball Players Association in CP3, as someone who can provide leadership and winning experience to this young team.

Some might say that they had all that with Rubio. Well, yes Rubio is an underrated passer and defender in the NBA, but no doubt CP3 is an upgrade and takes this team to the next level as a playoff team.

Now about the other moves, even though some say athletic big man Jalen Smith was a reach, offensively he can bring the production that the Suns were looking for in previous draft pick, Josh Jackson. Also, as Smith develops it should take away from the loss of the 18.7 PPG that the Suns traded away with Oubre.

Another addition in Crowder brings defensive grit and hustle to this Suns team that they were missing in years past. Also, he is a veteran who won't mind the ball not being in his hands as much as a young player like Oubre would, allowing Booker and Paul to work.

Although, the team will miss the presence of big man Baynes. Baynes took his game to the next level last season while improving in about every offensive stat. Although, the Suns are probably expecting their 2018 1st pick in Center Deandre Ayton, to take his third-year jump this season. Also, there are some solid depth options at the center position still left in free agency, like Hassan Whiteside.

Rank: 6th in the Western Conference

Atlanta Hawks

2019-20 Record: 20-47 | 14th in Eastern Conference

Last Team Rankings (Regular Season): Points Per Game (PPG) #17, Rebounds Per Game #22, Assist Per Game #17, Turnovers 2nd (highest), Defense (PPG Allowed): 30th (worst), stats from ESPN.

Addition(s):

• Traded for: C Nathan Knight (undrafted, two-way deal), SF Tony Snell, and SG Khyri Thomas from Detroit.

• Draft pick(s): PF/C Onyeka Okongwu (6th), G Skylar Mays (50th)

• Free agents signed: SF Danilo Gallinari (Oklahoma City), SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (Offer Sheet, Kings), PG Kris Dunn (Chicago), PG Rajon Rondo (L.A. Lakers), SF/SG Solomon Hill (Miami)

Noticeable Subtraction(s): C Dewayne Dedmon (traded to Detroit), SF DeAndre’ Bembry (free agent, Toronto), C Damian Jones (free agent, Phoenix), PG Jeff Teague (free agent, Boston), G Vince Carter (retired)

Possible Starting Five: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, John Collins, Clint Capela

Take: With the roster moves the Hawks made this offseason, they’re now a playoff contention team. This young team needed veteran leadership and a point guard to create offense when Young is on the bench, they now got both with Rondo. The 2x champion is still one of the best playmakers/passers in the NBA, and when it comes playoff time he takes his game to another level offensively, becoming a reliable shooter. Also, Rondo running the offense and playing the mentor role should help the Hawks keep their turnover numbers down.

The team also needed wings that could shoot, so their opponents would have to respect the court and not constantly double team Young. Now here incomes not one, but two sharpshooters in Gallinari and Bogdanovic.

The 12th year season veteran, Gallinari averaged 18.7 PPG while shooting 43.8% from the field (FG) and 40.5% from the three. Meanwhile, popular restricted free agent Bogdanovic averaged 15.1 PPG on 44% from the field and a respectable 37.2% from the three.

Most importantly, team defense was a big problem for this team last season, ranking the worst in the NBA for points allowed per game. Star PG Young is not known for being a good defender, and PF Collins is still developing as he ranks 27th among his position for DRPM, per ESPN. They added Capela to help during last season's trade deadline, but it wasn’t enough. As a result, they drafted a versatile big man who was one of the best defenders in his draft class in Okongwu. Also, the Hawks added one of the best guard defenders in the NBA in Kris Dunn, who ranks 2nd in DRPM for his position and has a 6’9” wingspan.

All the moves the Hawks made compliant their young stars in Young and Collins. They improved in areas where they struggled last season in experience, defense, and depth. As a result, the Hawks are now deep and lethal offensively and can bring respected defense onto the court.

Rank: 7th-8th in Eastern Conference

Portland Blazers

2019-20 Record: 35-39 | 8th in Eastern Conference | First Round Elimination (1-4 vs Lakers)

Last Team Rankings (Regular Season): Points Per Game (PPG) #6, Rebounds Per Game #12, Assist Per Game #30, Turnovers 26th (highest), Defense (PPG Allowed): 26th (lowest), stats from ESPN.

Addition(s):

• Traded for: F Robert Covington (Houston), C Enes Kanter (Boston)

• Draft pick(s): G/F CJ Elleby (46th)

• Free agents signed: F Derrick Jones Jr. (Miami), C Harry Giles III (Sacramento)

• Resigned: F Rodney Hood, F Carmelo Anthony

Noticeable Subtraction(s): SF Trevor Ariza (traded to Detroit), F Mario Hezonja (traded to Memphis), C Hassan Whiteside (free agent)

Possible Starting Five: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Robert Convington, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic

Take: Among the Blazers biggest problems last season was defense and depth (ranked last in points off the bench), and the Blazers addressed both of those needs this NBA offseason.

First, they traded for 3-and-D Forward Robert Covington in exchange for Trevor Ariza, 16th pick (Isaiah Stewart), and a future first-round pick. Covington averaged 12.8 points on 43.5% shooting, along with grabbing 6.6 rebounds a game. Also, six years younger, Covington is a more impactful offensive player than Ariza was for the Blazers.

The team also brought good depth pieces in with Kanter, Jones Jr, and Giles III. Kanter is an offensive big who can grab offensive rebounds and score putbacks. Besides last season with the Celtics, Kanter is usually a double-digit scorer and averages 7.6 rebounds for this career. This addition could help the Blazers with their bench scoring and take their team among the top at grabbing boards.

Dunk contest winner, Jones Jr. is a young (23) explosive athlete who averaged 8.5 PPG on 52.% FG last season. He isn’t a reliable three-point shooter but can drive to the basket while guys like Anthony and Lillard space the floor.

Meanwhile, the Blazers also bring in 22- year-old big Harry Giles. Coming out of Duke, Giles was seen as a gifted athlete, active rebounder, and a

defensive big who could run the floor and finish around the rim. It would be interesting to see if a new team and more playing time would help him develop into the player that many expected him to be.

Lastly, keeping both Anthony and Hood was extremely important to this team. Many NBA fans and journalists wrote off Anthony’s career as being finished, but he found a perfect fit with the Blazers. With the Blazers last season, Anthony averaged 15.4 PPG on 43% FG and 38.5 % from three, all while grabbing 6.3 boards a game. Meanwhile, Hood is a good role player to come off the bench with his reliable shot, as he averaged 11 PPG while shooting 50.6% from the field. The only thing about Hood is he needs to be more consistent and aggressive. With more reliable role players coming on this season, maybe it will take some pressure off or will spark a flame.

Rank: 4th in the Western Conference.

Now some might ask what about the Lakers here?

Well, it’s harder to rise when a team is already ranked at the top. The teams above have made a bigger jump when considering what will be their standing going into next season versus last.

Stock Down:

Detroit Pistons

2019-20 Record: 20-36 | 13th in Eastern Conference

Last Team Rankings (Regular Season): Points Per Game (PPG) #25, Rebounds Per Game #30, Assist Per Game #16, Turnovers 11th (highest), Defense (PPG Allowed): 15th (lowest), stats from ESPN.

Addition(s):

• Traded for: G Delon Wright (Dallas), G/F Dzanan Musa (Brooklyn), SG Rodney McGruder (L.A. Clippers), C Dewayne Dedmon ( Atlanta), SG/SF Zhaire Smith (Philadelphia)

• Draft picks: PG Killian Hayes (7th), C Isaiah Stewart (16th), SF Saddiq Bey (19th), PG Saben Lee (38th)

• Free agents signed: C Mason Plumlee (Denver), C Jahlil Okafor (free agent, New Orleans), F Jerami Grant (Denver), SG/SF Josh Jackson (Memphis)

Noticeable Subtraction(s): G Bruce Brown (traded to Brooklyn), SG Luke Kennard (traded to L.A. Clippers), SG Khyri Thomas (traded to Atlanta), SG/SF Tony Snell (traded to Atlanta), G Langston Galloway (free agent), C John Henson (free agent), PG Brandon Knight (free agent), C Thon Maker (free agent), Starting PF/C Christian Wood (free agent, Houston)

Possible Starting Five: Derrick Rose, Delon Wright, Jerami Grant, Blake Griffen, Mason Plumlee

Take: “What are they doing?”- This is the first thing that comes to mind when reviewing the Pistons offseason so far. Are they rebuilding or bringing in veteran pieces to try to make a playoff push? To be honest, it looks like they are just throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks. They obtain the young-one-way type of players who have shown potential, and veterans who never lived up to their hype.

For starters, they let one of the most promising pieces of last year’s roster walk, in Christain Woods, for an affordable contract. They also created a logjam for themselves at about every position; someone better tell the Pistons that going big doesn’t mean signing all the bigs.

Honestly though, how do you expect young guys to grow and veterans to show their worth if you have to split the minutes out so thin? Yes, it brings out competitiveness, but half of this team needs the experience to get to the point of competing at a high level.

Meanwhile, as other teams get proven players, Pistons brought no one in to take them over the top. They are holding onto a former All-Star player

who doesn’t fit their timeline and is eating up their cap space in Griffin. Also, Rose, who has revived his career a bit with the Pistons and increased his value, doesn’t fit their timeline either.

Both together are not enough for the Pistons to make a playoff run, as both are past their primes. What they should have done is trade them to a desperate team who is looking for another piece to gain assets (like the Pelicans and Thunder did). Instead, they wasted time, and while the pair could still be traded, there is less out there to get and fewer teams looking for holes to fill.

Rank: 14th in Eastern Conference

Indiana Pacers

2019-20 Record: 45-28 | 4th in Western Conference | First Round Elimination (0-4 vs Heat)

Last Team Rankings (Regular Season): Points Per Game #23, Rebounds Per Game #25, Assist Per Game #7, Turnovers 25th (highest), Defense (PPG Allowed): 3rd (lowest), stats from ESPN.

Addition(s):

• Draft picks: SG Cassius Stanley (54th)

• Free agents signed: C Amida Brimah

• Resigned: SG/SF Justin Holiday, SG/SF JaKarr Sampson

Noticeable Subtractions: None

Possible Starting Five: Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, TJ Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner

Take: It’s not about what they did do, it’s about what they didn’t do. While teams in the Eastern Conference like the Heat, Nets, Hawks, 76ers, and Bucks all got stronger, the Pacers did nothing to raise their stock.

They did have a chance at a sign-and-trade with the Celtics former All-Star F Gordon Hayward, as it was reported by NBA Insider Marc Stein, as his “preferred destination.” Although, whether it was money or the Pacers not wanting to give up certain players, the deal never happened and Hayward went to Charlotte. They were also interested in a sign-and-trade for scoring forward Bogdan Bogdanovic, per NBCS Kings Insider James Ham, but didn’t have enough juice to lure him in.

Now, it's also clear that the Pacers don’t have much cap room to make moves in free agency, but neither do most teams. As a result, the trade market this year is kind of like the free agency. It would have been nice to see the Pacers use some young role players and picks to get another star,

to take them to that next level.

Now given their offense ranking, this team's biggest need is a sharpshooter. Names like G Buddy Hield have been floating around in trade rumors, yet Pacers are not one of the teams mentioned.

The Pacers could be thinking that they don't need change because their problems will be solved once healthy. Still, a healthy 28-year-old

coming off an injury, who never shot above 37% from three, shouldn’t be relied on to carry the offensive load. Also, neither should big man Domantas Sabonis who doesn’t space the floor. The way the game is changing a team needs a three-point-sharpshooter on their roster.

It’s also important to note how the team being stagnant will impact their future with their star player Oladipo. For the past year, Oladipo has said in interviews that he wants to contend, and according to Indy Star reporter J. Michael, he even asked other players if he could play for their team. This shows that Oladipo doesn’t see this team as a real contender, and the Pacers are in jeopardy of losing him when he becomes a free agent next year. As a result, this team would be stuck as a middle of the pack team until they make a big move.

Rank: 7th-8th in Eastern Conference

Charlotte Hornets

2019-20 Record: 23-42 | 9th in Eastern Conference

Last Team Rankings (Regular Season): Points Per Game #30, Rebounds Per Game #26, Assist Per Game #19, Turnovers 18th (highest), Defense (PPG Allowed): 12th (lowest), stats from ESPN.

Addition(s):

• Draft pick(s): PG LaMelo Ball (3rd), C Vernon Carey Jr. (32nd), C Nick Richards (42nd), G Grant Riller (56th)

• Free agents signed: SG Nate Darling (undrafted, two-way deal), F Gordon Hayward (Boston)

Noticeable Subtraction(s): SG Dwayne Bacon (free agent, Orlando), C Willy Hernangómez (free agent, Pelicans), F Nicolas Batum (waived)

Possible Starting Five: LaMelo Ball, Devonte’ Graham, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Cody Zeller

Take: Another year another bad contract for this team. Now, it’s understandable that the team wants to sell tickets, and not too many stars are running to Charlotte to play. Although, throwing a 4-year 120 million dollar deal at a 30-year-old forward who couldn’t stay healthy for the past three years, and hasn’t looked as explosive since a big leg injury is not the way to go. They had to waive and stretch out a previous bad contract Batum just to fit Hayward.

Last year they gave another big contract to another former Celtic in PG Terry Rozier, a three-year 56 Million dollar deal. They did all of that just to draft a big boom-or-bust prospect in PG LaMelo Ball with the third pick in the draft. It would have made more sense if they would have traded back a few spots to get a much needed big in PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, and collected more assets in the process. Now they have a bunch of costly pieces of a puzzle that don’t fit together.

Just like the Pistons, it is unclear what direction this team is trying to head in. The Hornets are not good enough to be contenders, but they are locking themselves into bad contacts with players who will take them out of contention to land a top pick for the rebuild. It's a recipe for disaster

Rank: 11th in Eastern Conference

Some might ask why the Clippers, Thunders, or Rockets are not here. For starters, while the Clippers lost a lot of pieces, they are still a top-five team in a now weak Western Conference. They also made some improvements, like by bringing in a bigger big man in Serge Ibaka, who will fit their system better than Montrezl Harrell. The Thunder gutted their roster for about every first-round draft pick a team could get. As a result, they are well built for the future with a young star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a lot of picks. As a result, it is clear where their future is heading, unlike the Pistons and Hornets.

Meanwhile, the Rockets didn’t make the list because it’s uncertain what direction they are heading towards yet. They can be a playoff team again,

or a rebuilding team with a lot of assets due to trading Harden and/or Westbrook, but at least they have options.