NFL Award Series: Evaluating the Top Three Coach of the Year Candidates.

Locked IN’s co-founder and writer, Megan Holden.

Week 14 is here, and the NFL regular season is almost over which means, fans have now seen enough from players and coaches this season to evaluate.

The NFL award ceremony is on February 1st, 2020. But until then, Locked IN will give football fans a preview of what to expect while examining the top three candidates for the 2020 Coach of the Year.

For those who don’t know, the NFL Coach of the Year Award is presented annually by the Associated Press to the head coach who "has done the most outstanding job of working with the talent he has at his disposal.” Last season the award went to Ravens Head Coach, John Harbaugh, who helped lead the team to the best record in the NFL at 14-2.

Coach of the Year Candidates:

Mike Tomlin

Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

Experience: 14 years as head coach with Steelers

Record: 11-1

*Odds:+200

11-1 is still pretty good, right? It’s crazy not to consider Tomlin for the award when his team went undefeated this season for eleven straight games after going 8-8 last season. The Steelers also allow the fewest points allowed defensively while scoring the sixth-most points offensively, which means they execute in the most critical moments, a sign of great coaching.

Another sign of great coaching is the Steelers showing great discipline in limiting mistakes, as they create the 10th fewest penalties a game and are winning the turnover battle with a differential of +11 (tied for 1st). Also, credit goes to Tomlin for the team's ability to control the game with great clock management, as the Steelers rank third-best for Time of Possession, per TeamRankings.

It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows, as Tomlin had to adjust game-planning a few times this season due to schedule changes because of COVID-19. For instance, when the Steelers Week 8 bye got moved to Week 4 to push the Titans game back. Then, what was supposed to be a Thanksgiving game against the Ravens got pushed back until December 2nd. Keeping players physically and mentally ready is also credited to Tomlin, who didn't let his team overlook an opponent that was missing their starting QB.

In all, to go undefeated for so long this season is impressive when players keep coming on and off the COVID-19 reserve list, especially impactful players like starting RB James Conner or starting QB Big Ben.

But don’t just take our word for how great Tomlin has been. There are countless quotes from players that credit the coach for his consistency and how he prepares his players physically and mentally for game time.

Now the argument against Tomlin for the award this year is the Steelers have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Also, they just underperformed against a team they should have dominated in Washington. In that game, there were some questionable 3rd and short calls that didn't work. Lastly, given that QB Ben Roethlisberger being back is the biggest difference from this season to last, how much credit should go to him?

In his defense, the fact that the Steelers still win games they're expected to means that they don’t overlook their opponents, which again comes from good coaching. Also, the loss to the Washington Football Team was coming off a short week, as they played the Ravens five days before.

As far as how much credit goes to Tomlin, look further down the track record. Tomlin, who won the award once before in 2008 when the Steelers won the Super Bowl, has never had a losing season since becoming the Steelers’ head coach.

The coach with the most wins won last year. Will it happen again this year?

Brian Flores

Team: Miami Dolphins

Experience: Two years as head coach with Dolphins

Record: 8-4

*Odds: +300

Going into this season, who would've thought that the Dolphins could have a shot at winning the AFC East after coming off a 7-9 season?

NFL Fans are starting to see the blueprints for what Flores is building in Miami during his second year. It got off to a rocky start at 1-3, but then the Dolphins went on a five-game winning streak to upset teams like the 49ers, Rams, and the Cardinals. As a result, they're now 8-4 and one game back to top the division. That means Flores have out-coached offensive gurus like Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and Kliff Kingsbury.

The former New England Patriots' Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator has developed a tough defense, allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL at 17.7 a game (Steelers are first at 17.6). Contributing to that the most is Flores' development of Dolphins defensive standout CB Xavien Howard and using versatile defenders in the best way to succeed.

Flores’ defense has learned to capitalize off other team's mistakes enough to have the second-most takeaways in the NFL. The importance of winning the turnover battle (+7 differential) is something that Flores took away during his time in New England. Another lesson that's part of that is coaching guys to limit mistakes, which Flores has done well enough to have the team to commit the 4th fewest penalties a game, per TeamRankings.

On the offensive end, many analysts speculated that once he benched QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa he would lose the locker room. Although instead, they all bought in and rallied around Tagovailoa to go 4-1 with him as the starter. Despite what many speculate, Flores is handling the QB situation well without losing the locker room or games. He didn’t rush to hand the keys to the fifth overall pick of the first round, who was coming off a big injury. Instead, Flores waited until Tagovailoa was ready while playing a well-experienced veteran in Fitzpatrick, who he knows is not the future of the franchise. Also, Flores is not scared to bench Tagovailoa if he is costing the team the game or when not healthy.

Thanks to Flores, the culture has now changed in Miami. This Dolphins team identity is now known for being tough as nails, well balanced, fundamentally sound, and accountable. Does this sound familiar to anyone?

The argument against him is that Tomlin has a better record, and the Browns team had a bigger turnaround. Also, the team added a lot of talent in the offseason, and at times this season lack consistency.

Kevin Stefanski

Team: Cleveland Browns

Experience: first year as head coach of Browns (and in the NFL).

Record: 9-3

*Odds: +400

Did a coach finally break the Browns losing curse? The 9-3 Browns are on their way to finish the season with a winning record for the first time since 2007.

Coming in as an offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings, Stefanski's vision for this team is what got him hired, and sticking to it is the reason why this team has not collapsed like many expected them to.

NFL fans have to give it to Stefanski, he knows the team’s strengths and plays off of them. This team is second for most rushing yards per game (157.8) and allowed the eighth least rushing yards (104.3) in the NFL, per ESPN. As a result, they have better control of the clock, as their time of possession ranks second in the NFL over the last three games, per TeamRankings. This stat is especially good when your team has a coach like Stefanski, who has been praised for his time clock management decisions.

Stefanski and his staff have been getting the most from his player’s skill set, something that previous Brown's coaches have struggled with. For instance, making quick play calls offensively and getting to the line, giving Mayfield more time to read defenses and adjust or to catch them off guard. Also, using their skills wideouts to spread out defenses, giving their lethal running back duo more space. Then when teams clog the middle, they start setting up trick plays for their passing game. Another sign of great coaching is once teams start catching on, Stefanski adds new packages to keep defenses on their toes.

Most importantly, he got a team that was 6-10 last season to buy into his system. A team that had no identity, just a bunch of talent, is now a grit and grind team that plays together. This year fans don’t hear complaints about playing time or accountability. Also, instead of seeing coaches and players yelling at each other on the sideline, now fans see players praising their coach. Stefanski got his top talented players to buy into the underdog story, as they now play more as a team.

On the flip side, the argument against Stefanski for the award is that there have been a few games where the Browns have looked like the same team of the past. For instance, their division opponents in the Steelers blew them out 38-7, as Tomlin outcoached Stefanski in the matchup. Also, the Browns are still not quite well disciplined, as they rank 25th for penalties in a game (with 6.3) per TeamRankings.

Although it’s important to mention, he changed the identity, style, and culture of this team all in his first year in a shortened and limited offseason due to COVID-19.

So who do you have winning the Coach of the Year award?

Locked IN’s prediction is it will go to the coach's team that had the biggest turnaround, and in only his first season that is Stefanski (given that the Browns make the playoffs).

Despite how great Tomlin and Flores have been this season and will continue to be, it is huge for a coach to turn the losing culture in Cleveland around in just one non-regular season after so many coaches have tried. Also, now the Steelers are tied for the best record with the Chiefs, and there are questions if they take over the top spot again so Tomlin can win as Harbaugh did.

***Odds came from what is listed on sportsbetttingdime.com as of December 9th, 2020.