Comparing the Numbers: How Good of a Rookie Season is Justin Jefferson Having?

Locked IN Writer Joshua Miozza

In a deep draft class that features offensive players such as Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Robinson, it's easy to overlook the season WR Justin Jefferson is having.

For starters, Jefferson has 52 catches for 918 yards and six touchdowns on 72 targets through 11 games, which is good for a 72.2 catch percentage. He also averages 17.7 yards per reception while averaging 83.5 yards per game.

On the surface, these stats are already impressive, but in this article Locked IN looks even deeper into the numbers to see how impressive Jefferson really is versus his rookie counterparts and history.

It’s important to note, Jefferson spent the first two weeks of the season not starting in two-wide receiver sets. In these two weeks, he only accumulated five catches on six targets for 70 yards, while playing 69% of the snaps in week 1 and 54% in week 2.

Since being inserted into the starting lineup in week 3, Jefferson has caught 47 of his 66 targets for 848 yards and six touchdowns.

Although even within this incredible run, there were moments where the Vikings' offensive scheme relied mostly on star RB Dalvin Cook, hindering Jefferson's production. For instance, in weeks 8 and 9, he only caught a total of six passes on eight targets for 90 yards and no touchdowns, playing 65% of the downs week 8 and 60% week 9.

In all, Jefferson's incredible start through 11 games has come with playing less than 70% in four of his games. Imagine the production Jefferson could have had if he played at least 75% of the downs every game, and was involved in the offensive game plan for those four games.

Even in dealing with this, Jefferson's rookie season has gotten off to a record-breaking start;

"WR Justin Jefferson passed Marques Colston (869) and Mike Ditka (869) for fifth-most receiving yards by a rookie in NFL history through 11 games … Jefferson has 875 yards and counting," Vikings' Twitter account tweeted during their week 12 match game.

According to Nick Kosko of 24/7 Sports, Jefferson ranks third all-time in Vikings' history for rookie receiving touchdowns and receptions. Also, his six touchdowns are third to Former Rookie of the Year WR Sammy White (10) and Hall of Fame WR Randy Moss (17), while also only trailing Rookie of the Year WR Percy Harvin (60) and Moss (69) for rookie receptions. As of now, Jefferson only trails Moss for receiving yards in a rookie year (1,313).

This incredible year by Jefferson seems to have flown under the radar, a lot like he did on draft night. Four receivers were selected ahead of him this past NFL draft, and at the time not too many batted an eye. Rookie prospects Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs were known to be the consensus top three wide receivers taken off the board, but who followed next was the big question.

Fast forward to the 21st pick in the first round, the Philadelphia Eagles selected Jalen Reagor one selection ahead of Jefferson, who the Minnesota Vikings selected with the 22nd pick. That Vikings' pick came from a trade they made with the Buffalo Bills, who in return got standout WR Stefon Diggs. As a result, Jefferson had big shoes to fill, and not many expected him to replace the lost production in his rookie year, especially with a short and limited offseason. Meanwhile, Jefferson accepted that challenge.

Jefferson may have been the 5th receiver taken, but his production is 1st when compared to his counterparts in this draft. He ranks 2nd in receptions out of all rookies, only having one less reception than CeeDee Lamb (53). Jefferson only trails Chase Claypool for touchdowns (eight) and leads all rookie wide receivers by far in receiving yards (918), as Tee Higgins is next at 673. He is also PFF Highest-graded rookie wide receiver at 90.1

Jefferson is having the best season out of any rookie wide receiver this year, and it'll be interesting to see going forward where he will rank among the rest.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are already kicking themselves for the lost opportunity. NFL Insider John Clayton reports, there have been some “internal rifts” in the Eagles front office in regards to the team drafting Reagor over Jefferson.